When will we see outfield prospect Alan Roden up with the Toronto Blue Jays?

There’s a good chance that time will arrive during his fourth professional campaign in 2025, three years after being selected in the second round of the ’22 draft. However, breaking camp with the big-league club doesn’t appear to be all that likely for the 25-year-old this spring, at least as of now.

As currently situated, odds are Roden will return to triple-A Buffalo once spring training concludes, where he’ll look to build off last season’s impressive 71-game stint that included a .293/.391/.475 slash line, nine home runs, 48 RBIs, nearly as many walks (35) as strikeouts (41) and a 140 wRC+ (100 league average), but was cut short by a few games in late September due to a minor injury.

The left-handed-hitting outfielder has impressed in camp thus far, though. In six Grapefruit League games, he’s gone 3-for-8 (.375) with a pair of doubles and one run driven in while earning four walks and has yet to strike out. It’s also worth noting that he’s swung and missed just twice on 19 swings this spring, maintaining his high-contact, low-strikeout approach.

Between his offensive results and defensive versatility at all three outfield positions, Roden has put himself firmly on everyone’s radar throughout this organization, including general manager Ross Atkins. He’s not sneaking up on anyone this spring. Thus, it’s likely not a matter of if he’ll make his major league debut this season but a matter of when it’ll happen.

Some wondered heading into camp if there might be at least an outside chance that Roden could crack Toronto’s 26-man Opening Day roster with Daulton Varsho still recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. But the fact he’s already well ahead of schedule and may not require a season-opening IL stint likely squashes any hope of that dream.

Even if Varsho wasn’t available for Game 1 of 162, he probably wouldn’t miss more than the minimum required 10 days for position players, considering he’s already appeared in two exhibition contests as the DH thus far — homering in both. Plus, he only has a few more hurdles to clear, including throwing with intensity and crashing into walls, two crucial tests he’s still yet to pass.

So, with Varsho’s timeline in mind, it’d make little sense to have Roden join the Blue Jays out of spring training only to have him spend most of those first 10 days on the bench before being optioned to triple-A upon the veteran outfielder’s return. That’d be doing him and this franchise’s future a major disservice.

Roden would be better off preparing for his second season with the Bisons without interruptions or potential distractions. Not only because he isn’t Rule 5-eligible until after this season, adding extra importance regarding the timing of his call-up, but also due to the significance of replicating his ’24 performance.

The Middleton, Wisconsin, native has to offer a compelling reason for the Blue Jays brass to start his service time clock this season. Along those lines, the big-league roster must display enough cause for concern that management has no choice but to dip into its farm system for help at the plate — both of which could occur in ’25.

And enjoying a red-hot start would further intensify the pressure surrounding Roden’s timeline.

Let’s imagine for a second that Toronto’s offence struggles out of the gate, which is entirely possible considering the club’s daunting early-season slate, with each of their first 11 series against opposing pitching staffs that ranked in the top two-thirds of the majors in fWAR last season. The fact that Anthony Santander remains their lone meaningful offensive addition doesn’t help, either.

This Blue Jays lineup features plenty of uncertainty outside Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Santander. If that trio is met with mediocre results early on or receives insufficient support further down the order, it’ll continue to fuel the debate about whether someone like Roden — or another top prospect such as Orelvis Martinez — should fill that obvious offensive void.

Until such a time comes, Roden will have to bide his time in Buffalo as he awaits a big-league opportunity, working to improve his craft that saw him produce the 11th-lowest whiff rate (18.1 per cent) among qualified triple-A hitters (min. 250 plate appearances) after arriving on June 15.

But, while the organization’s No. 5 prospect per MLB Pipeline continues his development at triple-A, his clearest pathway to the majors will likely remain through left field. It’s a position that, more or less, is open for the taking. Granted, it’ll occasionally be occupied by George Springer or Santander, both of whom will also rotate through right field and DH.

During those other days, though, the current alignment will likely feature a less-than-desirable righty-lefty platoon of Davis Schneider and Joey Loperfido. Since there’s another left-handed outfielder close to knocking on Toronto’s door, the latter of those two will face considerable pressure to perform this season.

Loperfido — who still features a pair of minor-league options after being acquired as part of the Yusei Kikuchi deal — likely presents the biggest roadblock for Roden’s major-league arrival. As such, the fellow 25-year-old will need to fare better than the .197/.236/.343 slash line and 36.1-per-cent strikeout rate he produced across 43 games with the Blue Jays last season to maintain his roster spot.

Though most projection models expect the former Houston Astro to achieve that feat, many still consider him a league-average hitter, including FanGraphs’ ZiPS model, which projects him at a 98 wRC+ — two per cent below league average — with most of his 1.7 fWAR value stemming from his defence.

The truth is Toronto doesn’t have a player on its roster who can handle everyday duties in left field. They have a handful of bodies who’ll rotate through that spot depending on matchups and lineup configuration, but no one they can hang their hat on to run with the position — from their major-league options, that is.

Down at triple-A, however, will lie Roden.

While he’s excelled versus right-handers in his pro career, he’s also displayed encouraging reverse splits, particularly in 2024, where he hit .274/.304/.453 with 10 extra-base hits — including four home runs — in 106 at-bats against lefties split between double-A and triple-A.

It’s not an incredibly large sample size, and there’s the caveat of these results occurring against minor-league pitching. However, the potential exists for Roden to emerge as more than just an exclusive platoon hitter with a righty on the mound.

Another advantage to (eventually) rostering Roden in the majors is he’d likely offer assistance against high-velocity fastballs (95 m.p.h. or higher). We don’t have any data from his time at double-A, and he didn’t face many hard throwers with Buffalo. But, of the ones he did, his results were pretty impressive. Meanwhile, Loperfido and Schneider struggled to minus-four and minus-14 run values, respectively, during their exposure at the big-league level last season.

An injury, of course, could provide Roden with another pathway to The Show in 2025. In saying that, while the Blue Jays’ outfield mix features a pair of veterans in Springer (injured for much of ’21 and ’22) and Santander, both have been among the most available hitters at their position over the last few seasons.

Since ’23, Santander has led all American League outfielders in games played (308), while Springer (299) sits a few spots lower in fourth, trailing Adolis García (302) and Randy Arozarena (305). It should be noted that three of those four earn a considerable amount of their reps as the DH, though.

Still, it highlights the difficulty of creating playing time for others, particularly those in the outfield, involving a lineup that features a healthy Springer and Santander.

That situation will become immensely more challenging for someone like Roden if the Blue Jays ultimately acquire another notable bat before Opening Day. If they do, it’ll almost certainly be of the outfield variety or a DH type. Either way, it’d make cracking this lineup all that much harder. But if the front office’s pursuits remain unsuccessful, it’ll further heighten the importance of having a young hitter burst onto the scene in a meaningful way.

None of this presents a clear, concrete timeline as to when we can expect Roden to make his major league debut. But few would likely be surprised if he finishes this season with more starts than anyone else in left field, likely serving as a major win for Toronto — especially with Springer’s six-year, $150-million contract expiring after next season.